I’ve always been hesitant to make predictions—not because I lack opinions, but because I’ve been wrong too many times to count. There’s a special kind of humility that comes from watching the world defy your certainty, especially in technology. What once seemed obvious fades, and what once seemed laughable becomes the new standard. I’ve learned to treat bold predictions with skepticism, especially my own.
Thankfully, I’m in good company. The quotes below come from some of the brightest minds, most prominent institutions, and boldest publications of their time—people who shaped industries and commanded respect. And yet, when it came to forecasting the future, they missed it… spectacularly.
Here’s a curated list of verified tech predictions that turned out to be hilariously wrong. Let it serve as a reminder: the future is always more surprising than we expect.
The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.
William Preece, Chief Engineer of the British Post Office, 1876
Preece made this statement to dismiss the necessity of the telephone in Britain, expressing confidence in existing communication systems, such as messenger boys. It has since become emblematic of institutional resistance to innovation.
Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.
Popular Mechanics, March 1949
Published in Popular Mechanics, this line was intended as a futuristic vision at a time when computers like ENIAC were 30-ton behemoths. Ironically, it’s often quoted today as an example of underestimating future miniaturization.
Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop—because women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, like to be able to change their minds.
Time Magazine, Essay “The Futurists,” 1966
This sexist projection failed to anticipate the convenience-driven adoption of e-commerce. The quote is now often cited as an example of how cultural assumptions can cloud predictions.
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.
Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, World Future Society, 1977
Olsen made this statement, though it was taken out of context. He meant computers controlling the home, such as smart home systems, not personal computers. Regardless, it became infamous in tech lore.
The idea of a personal communicator in every pocket is a pipe dream.
Andrew Grove, Intel CEO, 1992
Andrew Grove expressed skepticism about the feasibility of personal communicators in every pocket, referring to them as a pipe dream driven by greed. This sentiment was documented in a 1992 article, reflecting the technological limitations and market uncertainties of the time
The truth is no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.
Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, “Why the Web Won’t Be Nirvana,” February 27, 1995
This widely circulated quote was part of a more extended essay expressing skepticism about the internet’s transformative power. Stoll later acknowledged he was wrong and has since become a good-natured example of forecasting humility.
We’ll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure.
Clifford Stoll, sarcastically quoting Nicholas Negroponte, Newsweek, 1995
Mocking Negroponte’s accurate prediction, this quote was intended to ridicule the idea of online shopping. It has since become one of the most well-known examples of a futurist being right and a critic being spectacularly wrong.
I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
Robert Metcalfe, InfoWorld, 1995
Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet, predicted an internet collapse due to bandwidth strain and poor infrastructure. When it didn’t happen, he publicly ate his own words—blending and drinking a printout of his column.
The NeXT purchase is too little, too late. Apple is already dead.
Nathan Myhrvold, Microsoft Chief Technology Officer, June 1997
The quote, now infamous, came just before Apple’s historic turnaround under Steve Jobs, proving how even seasoned tech leaders can badly misread the future.
The iMac will only sell to some of the true believers. [It’s] clean, elegant, floppy-free—and doomed.
The Boston Globe, May 14, 1998
Critics were alarmed by the iMac’s lack of a floppy drive and its unconventional design. Apple’s risk, however, paid off, and the iMac became a commercial success that helped reposition the company.
The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’… becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.
Paul Krugman, Red Herring Magazine, 1998
Often cited in failed tech predictions, this quote captures a fundamental underestimation of how social and commercial connectivity would fuel the internet’s expansion. Krugman later clarified that the quote wasn’t meant to be definitive.
[The Internet] may be just a passing fad as millions give up on it.
Daily Mail, December 2000
This quote is from a Daily Mail article summarizing research from the UK’s Virtual Society project. The headline turned out to be wildly off base, coming just before the widespread adoption of broadband and the explosion of digital life.
Maybe I’m an idiot, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. What is it? It’s complete gibberish. It’s insane. When is this idiocy going to stop?
Larry Ellison, Oracle CEO, Oracle OpenWorld, September 2008
At Oracle OpenWorld 2008, Ellison expressed skepticism about the emerging concept of cloud computing, criticizing it as a vague and overhyped term. Despite his initial dismissal, Oracle later embraced cloud technology, launching its own cloud services and becoming a significant player in the industry.
You cannot develop serious portable applications on Android.
Ray Lane, HP Chairman, September 2011
Following the discontinuation of HP’s TouchPad, Ray Lane expressed skepticism about the Android platform’s viability for developing robust portable applications. This statement was made during a period of uncertainty for HP’s mobile strategy, and Lane’s assessment reflected concerns about Android’s capabilities at the time.
Could it be, you know, four, five years? I think so.
Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, 60 Minutes interview, December 1, 2013
In a 2013 interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes, Jeff Bezos introduced Amazon’s ambitious plan for Prime Air, a drone-based delivery system aiming to deliver packages within 30 minutes. Bezos projected that the service could be operational in four to five years, pending regulatory approvals.
VR is going to need 10 years to become a very mainstream big thing.
Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO, F8 Developer Conference, April 12, 2016
During his keynote at the F8 Developer Conference, Zuckerberg outlined Facebook’s 10-year roadmap, emphasizing virtual reality (VR) as a key component. He acknowledged that while VR had significant potential to enhance social connections, it would require a decade to become mainstream.
Einstein is now every customer’s data scientist.
Marc Benioff, Salesforce CEO, Press Release, September 19, 2016
At the launch of Salesforce Einstein, Benioff proclaimed that Einstein would serve as every customer’s data scientist, aiming to democratize artificial intelligence by embedding it across all Salesforce applications. He envisioned a future where AI would be integral to every aspect of business operations. However, by 2025, while AI has become more prevalent, the universal integration Benioff predicted has been tempered by challenges in implementation, data quality, and user adoption.
Self-driving cars will take over the roads very soon.
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, TED Talk, April 2017
Musk predicted that by the end of 2017 a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York without the driver touching the wheel at any point. Despite major strides in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology, that fully autonomous cross-country trip—and Level 5 autonomy more broadly—still hasn’t happened.
From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road.
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, Autonomy Investor Day, April 22, 2019
At Tesla’s Autonomy Investor Day, Musk confidently predicted that Tesla would have over a million autonomous robotaxis operating by 2020. He acknowledged potential regulatory hurdles but maintained that the technology would be ready.
Quantum computing will arrive as soon as 2023, fueling innovation in pharmaceuticals, finance, and chemicals.
Arvind Krishna, IBM CEO, Interview with Fortune, December 2020
Krishna expressed confidence that quantum computing would move from experimentation to commercial use by 2023, particularly in fields requiring advanced simulation and optimization.
Final Thoughts
What’s so striking about these failed predictions isn’t just their inaccuracy—it’s the pedigree of the people making them. These weren’t fringe commentators or uninformed skeptics. They were industry titans, world-renowned CEOs, celebrated economists, and respected journalists. Many of them were surrounded by some of the brightest minds in technology, had access to cutting-edge research, and still managed to miss the mark—sometimes by miles. That should give all of us pause.
In some cases, the boldness of these statements may have been driven by the pressures of leadership, media narratives, or even attempts to reassure stockholders. But that only makes the misfires more fascinating. If people this smart, this informed, and this experienced can get it so wrong, what does that say about our ability to predict the future—especially in a space as fast-moving and unpredictable as technology?
That’s exactly why I’ve stopped making predictions. It’s not that I don’t have strong opinions or informed instincts—I do. But I’ve learned the hard way that humility is a much safer bet than certainty. The future has a way of surprising us, over and over again. So rather than try to forecast it, I’d rather stay curious, adaptable, and open-minded.
Because if history teaches us anything, it’s this: the next laughably wrong prediction could be our own.
©2025 DK New Media, LLC, All rights reserved | DisclosureOriginally Published on Martech Zone: Why I Don’t Make Predictions Anymore: A Cautionary List of Confidently Wrong Technology Forecasts